Are you ready for a LONG post? Because that’s what you’re going to get. This is one of the hardest years of all time to call best picture. It seems that there are those who firmly believe that Argo will win, and those who firmly believe that Lincoln will win. I could see the academy going for either, or they could throw us for a loop and vote for a completely different film. With that being said, you could make a strong argument for any of the nine best picture nominees.

Although not a very strong one for Amour. The film did manage to appeal to a large variety of academy voters, even managing to score a directing nomination. It is worth pointing out that it won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes film festival, but many films that win that award are all but forgotten by the time awards season rolls around. The academy will probably feel that the Best Foreign Film award that it’s destined to win is enough of a prize. I’m not usually one for puns, but the film’s chances of winning the big award are quite foreign.

Of the two ‘A’ Best Picture nominees, it’s ironic that Argo, lacking a directing nomination, stands in a better position than Amour. When the film was snubbed, I figured that people were going to get angry, but then forget about it. Clearly that has not been the case, as Argo has taken home the equivalent of Best Picture from the BAFTAS, Critic’s Choice, Golden Globes, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild. It’s clear that everyone has fallen in love with the movie, and who could blame em? It’s a action packed thriller that makes Hollywood the hero. The lack of a directing nominee is still prominent, and if Argo manages to win without that critical nomination, it would be the fourth film in Academy history to do so. But at the moment, I believe that it’s in the best position to do so.

One of the more pleasant surprises of the year was Beasts Of The Southern Wild earning noms for picture and director. Helmed by an inspirational new director, and starring a child prodigy, this film shows us that sometimes, something new can be so beautiful and profound. Earning it’s fair share of well deserved awards, this is one of the year’s best movies. As glorious as it is, the film is much too small and should just be happy to be there. With the lack of an editing nomination (even though it deserved one), this movie is just going to have to sit it out. But hey, if director Benh Zeitlin keeps making movies like this, chances are he’ll be back at the Oscars soon enough.

Quentin Tarantino returns with Django Unchained. I must admit, I didn’t know what to think when I went to see this movie, but was amazed at the film’s dark sense of humor and clever dialogue, which most of Tarantino’s fans are used to by now. However, the lack of directing or editing nominations for the film hurt it, as well as some controversy about the film. It’s worth seeing, but it’s not going to win.

And then you’ve got Les Misérables. Back when the teaser trailer was released, everyone instantly thought that this was the frontrunner to win Best Picture. However, when the film came out, many didn’t like it. And while the film does have 8 nominations, it failed to earn prizes for directing, writing, or editing. In fact, the film is the only Best Picture nominee without a writing nomination, and the last film to win the big award without a writing nod was Titanic, but that film managed to win Directing and Editing. In short, the film is not going to win. But hey, at least we got something out of it. Check out this video.

My personal favorite to win is Life Of Pi. No film this year has managed to pack the emotional punch that this film did. Using stunning visuals, the film took a story that many said was ‘unfilmable’ and created a visual experience that is already set to win several guild categories. But remember the last two years, where one film dominated in the main categories while another dominated in the guild categories. However, as a lot of the main categories seem relatively woozy, maybe we might see one film dominate the whole night. OH MY GOSH WOULDN’T THAT BE AWESOME! I’ll be voting for it, but the fact that the film lacks in any acting nominations and is in 3D, means the film may have to sit it out.

For the longest time, Lincoln seemed to have the upper hand. Take two-time winning director Steven Spielberg, two-time winning actor Daniel Day-Lewis, and the beloved story of our 16th president. This movie has earned twelve Oscar nominations, the most of any other film this year. However, the only category that it’s guaranteed to win is Actor, while the other eleven are up in the air. It is the most Oscar friendly movie this year, and a Best Picture win would not be very surprising. But the constant threat of Argo looming over it is not making things any easier.

A posible spoiler for the race is Silver Linings Playbook. Harvey Weinstein made sure that this film would get nominated in as many categories as it could, making it the first film to earn nominations in all four acting categories since Reds back in 1981, and the first nominated for ‘The Big Five’ since Million Dollar Baby back in 2004. It’s a pretty darn good film, too, so definitely consider it a possibility.

And the last nominee is Zero Dark Thirty. Much like Argo, this film is a true story/american/thriller, and it also earned nominations for writing and editing, but not for directing. However, I do understand why it didn’t earn the nomination, seeing as how Kathryn Bigelow already received an Oscar three years ago. The controversy surrounding the usage of torture in the film holds it back significantly, so I wouldn’t bet on it.

Will Win: Argo
Runner’s Up: Lincoln
Should Win: Life Of Pi