Oscar Predictions: November Update

Okay, this month, I’m going to have commentary after each category.

BEST PICTURE

American Hustle
August: Osage Country
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
*12 Years A Slave*
The Wolf Of Wall Street

Negative reviews for The Counselor caused me to drop it out of the Oscar Race entirely, while The Butler seems to be losing traction, so I replaced them with American Hustle and Philomena. Also even if Gravity deserves to win Best Picture, 12 Years A Slave is just the kind of movie that wins.

BEST DIRECTOR

*Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity*
John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Spike Jonze, Her
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf Of Wall Street

Face it, it’s a distinct possibility for Cuaron to win this even if his film doesn’t win Best Picture. It happened with Ang Lee last year. And if you’ve seen Gravity, you know how well-directed it is.

BEST ACTOR

*Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave*
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, The Dallas Buyers Club
Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

DiCaprio could get nominated, but I feel that the field is a little too crowded. Ejiofor wins this.

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
*Sandra Bullock, Gravity*
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

At the moment, it seems everybody is agreeing on these five actresses, but it’s unclear which one has the edge. I’ll go with Bullock for now, but only time will tell if I’m right.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

*Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks*
Jonah Hill, The Wolf Of Wall Street
Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years A Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Geoffrey Rush, The Book Thief

My out-of-the-box prediction. Hey, the academy loves Geoffrey Rush, and if they nominated Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones, I don’t see why Rush can’t be nominated. As for the win, Tom Hanks kind of has to win an Oscar for the year he’s having, and the supporting category is less crowded, so why not?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Her
Margo Martindale, August: Osage Country
Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years A Slave
Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
*Oprah Winfrey, The Butler*

Diaz’s movie is getting poor reviews, Keener is only in one scene, and Streep is the lead of her movie. All three of them are knocked off and replaced by Adams, (Because she’s Adams) Nyong’o, (Because she’s getting great reviews) and Spencer. (Because everybody else is predicting her.) As for the win, I’ll go with Oprah just because she’s Oprah.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

August: Osage Country
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
*12 Years A Slave*
The Wolf Of Wall Street

Monuments Men is officially out of the race. When in doubt, go with the Best Picture frontrunner.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

*American Hustle*
Blue Jasmine
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks

If David O. Russel’s screenplay is half as good as the one he wrote for Silver Linings Playbook, he should be an easy winner.

BEST FILM EDITING

Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
12 Years A Slave
*The Wolf Of Wall Street*

I know the smart money is on 12 Years A Slave, but Scorsese’s gotta win something, right?

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Is Lost
Her
*Gravity*
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years A Slave

Gravity was shot by the same cinematographer who did The Tree Of Life, only this time, he’s shooting a GOOD movie. I don’t see how he could lose.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Butler
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug
Saving Mr. Banks
*12 Years A Slave*

I can’t really nominate Gravity, so I’m rooting for the Best Picture here.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Butler
*The Great Gatsby*
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf Of Wall Street

~~I’ll go with Grace Of Monaco here. The academy loves their royalty period pieces.~~ As it turns out, Grace Of Monaco is not coming out this year, so I’ve replaced it with The Wolf Of Wall Street. As for the win, let’s give that to The Great Gatsby. They awarded Anna Karenina last year, so why not?

BEST HAIR & MAKEUP

*The Butler*
The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug
The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty

Sure, let’s go with The Butler. Not really sure what else to vote for.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

*Gravity*
The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty

If you don’t think Gravity is going to win, then you might need to see a doctor.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Book Thief
Captain Phillips
*Gravity*
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years A Slave

So many good scores this year! I’ll go with Gravity, but I may change my mind.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“For The First Time In Forever”, Frozen
*“Let It Go”, Frozen*
“Young And Beautiful”, The Great Gatsby
”The Moon Song”, Her
“Please Mr. Kennedy”, Inside Llewyn Davis

No idea on this one. But.. “For The First Time In Forever”, from Frozen. Try saying that five times fast.

BEST SOUND EDITING

*Captain Phillips*
The Counselor
Gravity
Rush
12 Years A Slave

I think this will be a good spot to reward the film, but Gravity could steal.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Captain Phillips
*Gravity*
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf Of Wall Street

Yeah, Gravity better win this.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

The Croods
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
*The Wind Rises*

You can see my predictions in my previous post.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Child’s Pose
Gloria
The Great Beauty
*The Past*
Renoir