Even though I’ve only seen 13 films in 2013 so far, Gravity and Twelve Years A Slave are in the top two, and I predict that it will remain that way for the rest of the year. And they are the two films with the best chances of winning Best Picture. So which film is ultimately going to take home the top prize? And even more interesting, will there be a split in the Best Picture/Best Director categories?

The case for 12 Years A Slave? It’s the most ‘important’ film of the year. It’s a period piece about slavery. It’s got some great performances in it. All in all, it’s the kind of film that wins Best Picture. So naturally, it wins. Right?

The case for Gravity? It’s the years best film. Now, I know what you’re thinking. Just because it’s the years best film, doesn’t mean it’s going to win. Heck, Citizen Kane, considered the greatest film of all time, didn’t win! But, remember. Back in 1941, Citizen Kane was considered very contraversal, while How Green Was My Valley was the much ‘safer’ choice.

12 Years A Slave is a dark film. It’s depressing. It’s brutally honest. Gravity also has plenty of dramatic moments, but in the end, it makes you’re heart soar. The film, in my opinion, was absolutely phenomenal. It’s probably my favorite live action film (and my second favorite film, next to How To Train Your Dragon.) and it’s got to be the best directorial effort i’ve ever seen.

So, how about a compromise? 12 Years A Slave wins Best Picture, Gravity wins Best Director. There! Everybody’s happy, right? At the moment, it seems to be a definite possibility, especially after Life Of Pi won Directing, last year. But let’s take a look at this.

These are the four big 3D Oscar contenders. Avatar, Hugo, Life Of Pi, Gravity. (I didn’t include Inception because it wasn’t 3D, or even really an Oscar Contender.) Each one focuses less on world building for eye candy and more on legit story. And Gravity is easily the best, and I don’t know how they could really top this. If there’s a time to give a 3D film Best Picture, this is it.

But what about Best Director? Director Steve McQueen could be the first African American Director to win the Oscar. Steve directed one heck of a movie, and if there’s ever a time to give an African American an Oscar in this category, this is it. And yet, I don’t see a situation where Gravity wins Picture and 12 Years A Slave wins Directing. Besides, Alfonso Cuaron could potentially be the first Spanish director to win.

At the moment, it seems wisest to predict a split, but Steve McQueen could easily win directing, and I desperately hope that Gravity ends up winning.