Okay,  we’re moving into some really difficult categories. But I have a good feeling about this category. I’m not sure when Original Screenplay got to be more complicated than Adapted, but something happened along the way, and here we are. Anyway, here are the nominees

5th Most Likely To Win: Nightcrawler

This is the film’s only nomination. You have to go back to 1957 to find a film that won in this category without any other nominations. That fact alone makes it dead last in this category.

4th Most Likely To Win: Foxcatcher

Okay, this film has a few nominations. People clearly like it. But it’s not a Best Picture nominee. And even if it was, do people really like this screenplay enough to vote for it over the other three?

3rd Most Likely To Win: Boyhood

Okay, people love this movie. It’s one of the top two contenders for Best Picture, and a lot of people want this to win in the top category. However, to quote B + Movie Blog, “This isn’t a movie about the writing. It’s about the concept and execution.” Even those who love the movie don’t seem to be giving the screenplay that same amount of love, and there are two contenders I would rank above this film.

2nd Most Likely To Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

This won the BAFTA. And it’s clearly a well-liked movie. A lot of people loved the screenplay, and this could be a very easy upset winner. And Yet, I just don’t feel that the movie has that much love. I would like to point out that, more often than not, the Best Picture winner takes home a screenplay Oscar. And this film is not one of the top two contenders to win Best Picture.

MY PREDICTED WINNER: Birdman

It won the Globe and the BFCA. The screenplay itself is flat out brilliant. It’s the best screenplay of the year, original or adapted. And it’s in the film that seems to be in the best possible position to win Best Picture. But whether or not it wins Picture, I don’t think anybody will disagree with this film as a Screenplay winner. It just seems like the right choice.

My Personal Ranking Of The Nominees:

1.) Birdman
2.) The Grand Budapest Hotel
3.) Boyhood
4.) Foxcatcher