Let’sPredict: Best Picture

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And here we are. We’ve reached the big category. Best Picture of the Year. The oscars are tomorrow, and it’s extremely tough for me to make my final prediction. And keep in mind, I’m not 100% confident with this prediction. I might change my mind the second I’m done with this post. But for now, let’s take a look at the nominees.

8th Most Likely To Win: The Theory Of Everything

I just can’t picture this film getting a lot of #1 votes, or even #2 or #3 votes. Sure, people liked it. But how many people really loved this film? And yes, it’s a biopic, but if Academy members want to vote for a biopic, there are three other choices that they can go for.

7th Most Likely To Win: Selma

It only has one other nomination, and it isn’t even nominated in a major category. Now I’m sure that since the nominees, more people have gotten to see this film, and some people might want to vote for this film. And yet, I highly doubt that the film has enough support to actually win.

6th Most Likely To Win: Whiplash

This film most definitely has its fans. People will vote for this, and if it had a Best Director nomination, it would be in a serious position to pull off an upset win. But the fact is, Damien Chazelle is not nominated, and is film doesn’t have any serious wins under it’s belt. Plus, the film will get it’s due in Supporting Actor and possibly some of the other categories.

5th Most Likely To Win: American Sniper

This movie made more money at the box office than all of the other nominees COMBINED. That is simply insane. Clearly, people like this film, and a number of people will vote for it. And yet, it’s missing that crucial Best Director nomination. Also, the film doesn’t have any serious critic’s wins under it’s belt.

4th Most Likely To Win: The Imitation Game

The film has crucial nominations in Directing, Writing, and Editing. It’s a biopic, and it’s backed by Harvey Weinstein. Under normal circumstances, those credentials would mean being placed a lot higher than #4. Unfortunately, this film hasn’t won any critics awards, which it would need to win Best Picture, This will get votes, and the Biopic genre is usually Academy friendly, but I think that this year, the Academy wants to try something different.

3rd Most Likely To Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Brace yourselves, people – this could actually win. It beat out Birdman in the comedy races at the Golden Globes and the BFCA. A surprise win for this film could be a result of vote splitting between Birdman and Boyhood. However, it’s entirely possible that Budapest’s wins in the comedy categories is due to the fact that Budapest is actually a comedy, unlike Birdman which is a drama disguised as a comedy. Plus, Budapest really doesn’t have a deeper meaning, outside of being quirky and funny. The last comedy to win Best Picture, Annie Hall, had much more going for it.

Oh, God. Here it comes, the final two…

2nd Most Likely To Win: Birdman

I want this to win. I really want this to win. It won the PGA, and that’s usually a very good sign. But the problem is, it lost the Globe, the BFCA, and the BAFTA. Clearly the film has support, but something’s telling me that it’s too weird to win. I think it might be this year’s Gravity, winning a ton of awards but missing out on the big one in the end. Yes, a lot of people love it, but I feel that this might be a red herring.

MY PREDICTED WINNER: Boyhood

I’m not gonna lie here… I don’t want to go with Birdman and have that be wrong. Lat year, I went with Gravity and it lost to 12 Years A Slave. This won the Globe, the BFCA, and the BAFTA. A lot of people love it.  I really don’t know about this. This is really just educated guessing. But because this is definitely the more traditional film compared to Birdman, I’m gonna go with this as your winner.

My Personal Ranking Of The Nominees

1.) Birdman
2.) Whiplash
3.) The Imitation Game
4.) Boyhood
5.) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6.) American Sniper
7.) The Theory Of Everything
8.) Selma

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