2015 Oscar Predictions – October Update

Five_Pointed_Star_Lined

So things have changed a bit since my last Oscar Predictions. Spotlight is apparently ‘the film to beat’, but I’m gonna stick with Room, which seems to be getting closer to winning every day.

What other changes have come about? Well, let’s take a look.

BEST PICTURE

Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

Here we go. I think it’s gonna be nine movies, and even if I did make it ten, I wouldn’t know if I should put in Bridge Of Spies, Son Of Saul, The Martian, or even Mad Max. I am quite satisfied with these nine films, and I feel they’re all safe bets. But at this point in the race, anything’s possible.

BEST DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahmson – “Room”
Danny Boyle – “Steve Jobs”
Alejandro G. Inarritu – “The Revenant”
Tom McCarthy – “Spotlight”
David O’Russell – “Joy”

Replaced Hooper with McCarthy. These five feel right to me. I couldn’t even say which one of these guys is least likely to be nominated. Most people would say Abrahmson, except he’s my winner.

BEST ACTOR

Johnny Depp – “Black Mass”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender – “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne – “The Danish Girl”
Géza Røhrig – “Son Of Saul”

Replaced Hanks with Røhrig. Javier Bardem & Damien Bichir got in for foreign performances in this category, so Géza Røhrig could get that elusive fifth spot. I suppose Matt Damon could get in for The Martian, but like I said on Twitter…

This year’s Oscar Best Actor race could be composed of Damon, Depp, DiCaprio, Fassbender, and Redmayne. #yourewelcomeladies

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – “Carol”
Brie Larson – “Room”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Joy”
Saiorse Ronan – “Brooklyn”
Lily Tomlin – “Grandma”

Replaced Mulligan with Ronan. I could have had both Mulligan & Ronan on over Tomlin, but if that happens, then 4/5 our Best Actress nominees will be 30 or younger. And what does that say about Hollywood?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Idris Elba – “Beasts Of No Nation”
Tom Hardy – “The Revenant”
Michael Keaton – “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance – “Bridge Of Spies”
Jacob Tremblay – “Room”

Replaced Cooper and Russell with Keaton and Rylance. We have confirmation from A24 that Jacob Tremblay is going supporting. While I think a nomination for Tremblay could easily happen, Elba’s role seems to be the kind that sweeps throughout the whole award season. But don’t rule out any of the others, as this year seems to be unusually strong for Supporting Actor.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Joan Allen – “Room”
Jennifer Jason Leigh – “The Hateful Eight”
Rooney Mara – “Carol”
Alicia Vikander – “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet – “Steve Jobs”

I think almost everyone has Leigh, Mara, Vikander and Winslet. I’m replacing Marion Cotillard with Joan Allen, who I’ve been ignoring for a while. Which is ironic seeing as how I’ve been Room‘s biggest supporter from Day One. I just didn’t think she could get in seeing how small the role is, but Allen has a strong fanbase and she is impressing a lot of people, so I think this could easily happen.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
Son Of Saul
Spotlight

I replaced Bridge Of Spies with Son Of Saul, which could be this year’s Amour if they campaign right.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Carol
The Danish Girl
The Revenant
Room
Steve Jobs

Changed my winner from Steve Jobs to Room, otherwise no change in the nominees.

BEST FILM EDITING

Joy
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

Replaced The Hateful Eight with Spotlight and made it my winner. I’m still very unsure about this category.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Bridge Of Spies
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Room
Sicario

No change here. Chivo seems well on his way to becoming the first cinematographer to win 3 consecutive Oscars. (And the fourth overall person to do so, after Jim Rygiel, Randall William Cook, and Walt Disney.)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Macbeth

Replaced The Revenant with Carol. But Bridge Of Spies and/or The Martian could make a play here.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Pan
Suffragette

No change here.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Black Mass
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road

No change here either.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk

Replaced Spectre with The Walk. I made The Martian my winner based on the film’s similarities to the past two winners Gravity & Interstellar.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Bridge Of Spies
The Danish Girl
Inside Out
Room
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I replaced Carol and The Walk with The Danish Girl and Star Wars. Look at this lineup. We’ve got Alexandre Desplat, Michael Giacchino, Thomas Newman, John Williams… and one newcomer, Stephen Rennicks. Looks good to me! The Martian could get nominated if the film gets enough warm reception, but the competition seems pretty steep this year.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Cold One” – Ricki & The Flash
“Flashlight” – Pitch Perfect 2
“Love Me Like You Do” – 50 Shades Of Grey
“See You Again” – Furious 7
“Writing’s On The Wall” – Spectre

Replaced “Equation” with “Flashlight”. I really think “See You Again” has a serious chance to win not only because of how well the song is doing in the charts, but because of the song’s use in the film and the connection to Paul Walker’s death.

BEST SOUND EDITING

The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

No change with the nominees

BEST SOUND MIXING

The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

I’ve replaced Room with The Martian. I’m currently predicting the two sound categories to have the same nominees and the same winner. That probably won’t happen, but at this point they may as well make it one category again.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Shaun The Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

It looks like Little Prince is getting pushed to next year. I’ve replaced it with Shaun The Sheep Movie, which seems to be getting good reviews, and Aardman has been nominated here before. The festival success of Anomalisa has gotten my attention, replacing The Prophet. And if you’re wondering why The Peanuts Movie isn’t here, let’s just say that this category has snubbed Curious George, The Simpsons Movie, and The Lego Movie, which makes me think that the academy isn’t a fan of pre-established franchises in this category.

I’m gonna add my Foreign Language film and Documentary. These probably won’t be accurate, but it’s the thought that counts.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Assassin
Labyrinth Of Lies
The Second Mother
Son Of Saul
The Wave

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Amy
Autism In Love
Heart Of The Dog
He Named Me Malala
The Hunting Ground

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