In recent years, the acting categories tend to be easy to predict. And this year is n different. Best Actor and Actress are both %100 locked. You’ll hear my Best Actor predictions shortly, but first, here are my picks in Lead Actress. In all honesty, I didn’t have to think too hard for this one. I’ve known the answer since last year.
5th Most Likely To Win: Charlotte Rampling in “45 Years”
The film is playing in extremely limited release, so I don’t know how many people have actually seen it. I’m sure that this is a wonderful performance, but the fact remains: Rampling was a big surprise on nomination day. She missed nominations at the globes, SAG and BAFTA. Does anybody really think she has a chance to win here?
4th Most likely To Win: Jennifer Lawrence in “Joy”
The winning combination of Lawrence and Russell managed to score another nomination. This time, however, the film itself failed to get any recognition outside of Lawrence. What was once a presumed Oscar frontrunner ended up underperforming with critics. At least Lawrence got a Golden Globe for this, but I don’t think that’s really gonna have a lot of impact on her chances here.
3rd Most Likely To Win: Cate Blanchett in “Carol”
Carol is an absolutely perfect film, and Blanchett’s performance is a good reason for that. This is acting at it’s finest. But Carol failed to earn a Best Picture nomination, and Blanchett hasn’t really won any critics awards, though she has received nominations for it. Plus, she already has two Oscars, and one of them was just two years ago. (For a performance that didn’t deserve it.)
2nd Most Likely To Win: Saoirse Ronan in “Brooklyn”
She is in a Best Picture nominee, and that’s usually a good sign. She’s also getting virtually every second place vote out there, with some people actually preferring her to win. She has a small chance to win BAFTA. But even if she does, I don’t think that’ll give her a serious chance to actually win the Oscar.
MY PREDICTED WINNER: Brie Larson, Room
Over a year ago, I was reading the book Room, and the thought occurred to me that if a film adaptation were made, whoever played ‘Ma’ would contend for the Best Actress Oscar. Once I heard about the film, I reread the book and decided that this was an Oscar winning role. So during the whole past year, I was fully confident that Brie Larson was going to win Best Actress. I spent most of that year being ridiculed, but I was absolutely positive in what no one else believed. Call it faith, if you will. Once the movie came out, Larson rose in the charts fast, with every Oscar blogger slowly but surely closing in on her as their frontrunner. Then Larson win at the Globes, SAG and Critic’s Choice Awards. And all I can do is sit back and calmly nod my head.
I’ve seen three of the five nominees. Here’s how I would rank them.
Blanchett: “We’re not ugly people, Harge.”
Larson: The interview
Ronan: Revealing that she got married.