If I were to sum up the events of 2016 with a movie title… well, it would be a close call between “Rules Don’t Apply” and “It’s Only The End Of The World”. Yes, this year was anything but normal, and somehow I get the feeling that this year’s Oscar race will be no different. So with less than 24 hours to go before the big announcement, I feel it’s high time for me to offer up some FINAL PREDICTIONS.
For the record, I don’t actually believe that there will be ten nominees. I’m predicting ten more as a safety net than anything else.
Also, I am not predicting Silence in any category. Which is probably stupid of me, but it’s hard to believe that this film is even a thing after it’s missed almost everywhere.
Chazelle and Jenkins are locks. Lonergan and Villenueve seem very likely. David Mackenzie is my wild card prediction, but I think it can happen.
These five actors are popping up everywhere, likely for good reason.
Adams, Portman, and Stone have been locks for a long time. And after the Globes, both Streep and Huppert seem solidly in the hunt. Man, what a strong year!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Funny how I’m so confident in all of the four acting categories. I just know there will be a sjocker somewhere, I just can’t figure out where.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Davis, Harris, Kidman, and Williams are all locks. And Spencer seems like the safe choice for the #5 slot.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I can’t say how much I wanted to put Zootopia in this lineup. Nothing would make me feel better than seeing the film in the final lineup, but I really don’t want to predict it and then be wrong.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Hidden Figures makes sense as a nominee but I can’t figure out which one to take off. That’s what happens when you have a plethora of riches.
BEST FILM EDITING
These are the five films that make the most sense to me, although Manchester could very easily get on.
It feels like I keep bringing up the same films over and over. I’m actually hopeful that the actual Oscar lineup is more diverse than this.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Hail, Caesar is a bit of a leap, but I think it could very easily happen.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
These five films all seem like reasonable bets. I’ve heard that Kubo could stand a chance in this category. I’ll believe it when I see it.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
It’s hard to know how this category will go down, but I think that Deadpool might end up being our winner.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Yes, I’m actually going to predict this. I don’t know what’s gotten into me, but Kubo
& The Two Strings seems like it has enough support to get a mention in this category, becoming the second animated film in history to d
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
John Williams will get on because he’s John Williams. The other four seem like solid bets given how much both the films and their scores have been widely praised.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land
“Can’t Stop The Feeling” – Trolls
“City Of Stars” – La La Land
“Drive It Like You Stole It” – Sing Street
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana
(Runner up: “Try Everything” from Zootopia.
I decided not to make a fancy graphic for this category. If I just use posters or images from the film, then it’s hard to get an official statement in. Because all four of the films represented have more than one eligible song, and just posters wouldn’t be able to do the songs justice.
BEST SOUND EDITING
I have a 3/5 match-up in the two sound categories, which feels about right. It’s kind of hard to call these categories.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Ditto what I said above.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
I seriously debated whether or not to predict a Finding Dory snub. In recent memory, the academy doesn’t nominate a Pixar film when they know that it’s not gonna win. But Finding Dory made a lot of money at the box office and has great critical reception. I think that it’s gonna get on. But at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter as long as Zootopia takes this Oscar.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
I’m taking a big risk by predicting an animated film to be nominated for Foreign Film. It’s only happened once before with Waltz With Bashir, and that was rotoscoped. This is straight up stop motion, but I think this can totally happen. Also, as excited as I would be to see Xavier Dolan nominated, I’m already taking enough of a risk.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
This is a very political lineup, but it just makes sense to me. I really hope 13th makes it in, that was hands down the most powerful documentary I’ve ever seen.
Now, that’s all of them except for the shorts, which is all a bunch of educated guesswork. I didn’t make fancy graphics for those because, well because I have better things to do with my time.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
“La Femme et le TGV”
“Nocturne In Black”
“The Rifle, The Jackal, The Wolf, And The Boy”
“The Way Of Tea”
Runner up: Sing
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“The Head Vanishes”
“Once Upon A Line”
Runner up: Piper
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“The Mute’s House”
“Watani: My Homeland”
“The White Helmets”
Runner up: Close Ties