Final Oscar Predictions

I actually got a migraine on the day of the Globes which is why I didn’t say anything regarding the winners. 12 Years A Slave winning was certainly a shocker. I think I got 7/14. Pitiful. But right now, winners are the last thing on my mind. I need to figure out who’s going to be nominated. Remember, the Academy is going to surprise us, no matter what we predict. We can never get it right. But we can make a pretty good guess.

Here are my predictions, complete with alternates and commentary.

BEST PICTURE

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf Of Wall Street

Chances are, there will only be nine nominees. But there are so many good films this year I can’t decide which one of these ten to leave out. No winners in bold. I’ll have plenty of time to think about who will win later.

(alt: Blue Jasmine)

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Spike Jonze, Her
David O. Russell, American Hustle

I’m starting to worry that I’m just setting myself up for disappointment by predicting Spike Jonze. I’m just so sure he can do it. Martin Scorsese can’t be nominated every time.

(alt: Martin Scorsese, The Wolf Of Wall Street)

BEST ACTOR

Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost

Dern and Redford are looking vulnerable. It’s entirely possible that one or both of these men could miss, leaving room for DiCaprio or even Joaquin Phoenix. At the moment, it seems wisest to predict this lineup.

(alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf Of Wall Street)

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

These are the same five actresses that everyone has been predicting for months. If anybody can throw a screw in the wrench, it’s Adams.

(alt: Amy Adams, American Hustle)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Jared Leto, Dalllas Buyers Club

These five all seem like contenders. Gandolfini could get a posthumous nomination if the academy wanted to honor him, but have enough seen the film?

(alt: James Gandolfini, Enough Said)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

All of the acting categories seem to have a clean set of five that’s easy to guess. These five seem like good chances, but I’m secretly rooting for Johansson to get on.

(alt: Scarlet Johansson, Her)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

They nominated Life Of Pi last year, didn’t they? Tough choices here. Gravity or even Llewyn Davis could get the shaft.

(alt: Blue Jasmine)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf Of Wall Street

I think most people are predicting these five, and it seems like a solid set.

(alt: August: Osage County)

BEST FILM EDITING

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf Of Wall Street

Again, a pretty predictable category.

(alt: Her)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
12 Years A Slave

Will Deakins be nominated for name alone, or will people pass on his movie?

(alt: Captain Phillips)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Gravity
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years A Slave

These nominees seem fine.

(alt: The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years A Slave

Somehow I still see “The Invisible Woman” making it on. Look for “Hunger Games” to surprise.

(alt: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

At this point, I would’t be shocked to see any of the seven contenders get on.

(alt: The Great Gatsby)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness

Not really an important category, especially since we all know what’s winning.

(alt: Elysium)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years A Slave

So many good soundtracks this year. These are the five I’m predicting, but Nebraska or Philomena could surprise.

(alt: All Is Lost)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Amen”, All Is Lost
“Let It Go”, Frozen
“The Moon Song”, Her
“Ordinary Love”, Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom
“Young And Beautiful,” The Great Gatsby

Original Song always seems to be the most shocking announcement. Snub for Let It Go? By academy’s standards, it’s certainly possible.

(alt: The Last Mile Home, August: Osage County)

BEST SOUND EDITING

All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush

Five suitable contenders. Could Iron Man be a shocker?

(alt: Pacific Rim)

BEST SOUND MIXING

All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush

Strong crop of sound work this year. Could 12 Years make it on?

(alt: Lone Survivor)

BEST ANIMATED FILM

The Croods
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

(alt: Despicable Me 2)

Brokern Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Notebook
Omar

Okay, I know just about nothing about these films, so I looked at B + Movie Blog. This guy gave synopsis..s.s.MORE THAN ONE SYNOPISIS for the films that were in contention. Check the page here. I’m actually picking the same films he’s picking. I hope that’s not cheating.

(alt: The Grandmaster)

Okay, when tomorrow comes, I know there will be surprises. I know there will be snubs. Practically a storm of shockers from the Academy. Well, you know what?

Let the storm rage on.

The cold never bothered me anyway.

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