With the Academy Awards, there are few certainties these days. In the case of Best Adapted Screenplay, there does seem to be a default frontrunner, but it’s one category where I can easily see an upset happening. If the BAFTA’s are any indication, the term ‘frontrunner’ can change.
Our first nominee is Before Midnight. It’s the one nominee I haven’t seen, and I’m not entirely sure if it’s worth sitting through three movies for. (I probably will see the trilogy at some point, though) The last time a film without a Best Picture nomination managed
to win here was 1998. And that was when we had 5 Best Picture nominees. Sorry, but this ain’t winning.
Next we have Captain Phillips, which won the WGA. Usually, The WGA winner would be in a good position to nab the Oscar, but as the film is not universally a big contender, and I personally am not a fan of the screenplay, I don’t think it has a very big chance.
Then we have Philomena. Now, Harvey Weinstein is pushing hard for this movie to succeed and he could easily pull off a win here, after all, the film is my personal preference in this category, and it won the BAFTA. This film has a good chance of winning, and it might be the frontrunner if not for…
…12 Years A Slave. While the film may ultimately lose Best Picture, the screenplay may have a better night, it won the Critic’s Choice and at least a dozen other awards from various film groups. This may be one of the only places that they can award the film, and it’s a film that a lot of Academy Voters really like.
And finally, there’s The Wolf Of Wall Street. The screenplay is a good one, and this might be the closest it can get to an Oscar. The problem is that it’s a graphic and highly controversial film that a lot of Academy voters disliked. I think the Academy is too prestigious to reward a script that’s about 10% F-word.
WILL WIN: 12 Years A Slave
RUNNER UP: Philomena
SHOULD WIN: Philomena