FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (2014)

Here we go. The nominations are tomorrow, and these are my final predictions. I’m predicting a couple of surprises. I’ll go through it category by category

BEST PICTURE

“Boyhood”
“Birdman”
“Gone Girl”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“Still Alice”
“The Theory Of Everything”
“Whiplash”

(alt: American Sniper)

Remember when The Reader and The Blind Side shocked everybody with a Best Picture nomination, really showing how strong Kate Winslet & Sandra Bullock were in the Best Actress race? Well, I predict the same thing will happen this year with Still Alice. You heard it right here, folks.

BEST  DIRECTOR

Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ava DuVernay for Selma
David Fincher for Gone Girl
Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman
Richard Linklater for Boyhood

(alt: Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game)

These all make sense to me. If Morten Tydlum missed BAFTA, he has no chance at an Oscar nod. Even those who didn’t like Selma will be pressured into voting for an African-American woman. It’s just the type of thing Oscar voters do.

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory Of Everything

(alt: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler)

After a lot of thinking, I finally settled on these five. Fiennes’ film is so beloved, I can see him making it on over Gyllenhaal.

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Felicty Jones, The Theory Of Everything
Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Still Alice
Rosamond Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

(alt: Jennifer Aniston, Cake)

Adams has that BAFTA nod and a Golden Globe Win. The academy loves to nominate her. And did I mention her film is backed by Harvey Weinstein? She’s totally on.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J. K. Simmons, Whiplash

(alt: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice)

I didn’t want to go Duvall, but I couldn’t figure out who to replace him with. Brolin is in a film that people can’t make heads or tails of. Waltz’s performance is love-or-hate. Chris Pine could surprise, but his film isn’t really loved right now. For the moment, this seemed the safest.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Carrie Coon, Gone Girl
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into The Woods

(alt: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year)

Every year there’s that one acting nomination that nobody sees coming. And don’t ask why, but I have this really strong feeling about Carrie Coon.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Nightcrawler”
“Selma”

(alt: The Lego Movie)

When did Original Screenplay become tighter than adapted? That NBR win makes The Lego Movie seem like a possibility, but I don’t want to jump to conclusions.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“Gone Girl”
“The Imitation Game”
“The Theory Of Everything”
“Whiplash”
“Wild”

(alt: American Sniper)

Whiplash‘s sudden change to this category might make it vulnerable. But I think enough people loved the screenplay to keep it alive.

BEST FILM EDITING

“Birdman”
“Boyhood”
“Gone Girl”
“The Imitation Game”
“Whiplash”

(alt: Selma)

These seem like the choices, but Selma or Interstellar could surprise.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“Birdman”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Interstellar”
“Mr. Turner”
“Unbroken”

(alt: Ida)

I really want Ida to show up here, but I’m not bold enough to predict it.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“Into The Woods”
“Snowpiercer”

(alt: Big Eyes)

I really, really want Snowpiercer to happen. This cannot be understated.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“Big Eyes”
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“The Imitation Game”
“Into The Woods”
“The Theory Of Everything”

(alt: Selma)

I’m really not sure about this category.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Guardians of the Galaxy”
“The Theory of Everything”

(alt: Foxcatcher)

What we have here is four films vouching for three slots.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes”
“Godzilla”
“Guardians Of The Galaxy”
“The Hobbit: The Battle Of The Five Armies”
“Interstellar”

(alt: Maleficent)

This category seems pretty clear cut.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

“Gone Girl”
“The Imitation Game”
“Interstellar”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Under the Skin”

(alt: Unbroken)

I’m probably the only person in the world who’s predicting Under The Skin despite the fact that everybody seemed to love that score.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Lost Stars” from Begin Again
“Big Eyes” from Big Eyes
“Split The Difference” from Boyhood
“Everything Is Awesome” from The Lego Movie
“Glory” from Selma

(alt: “Mercy Is”, Noah)

BEST SOUND EDITING

“American Sniper”
“Fury”
“Godzilla”
“Guardians Of The Galaxy”
“Interstellar”

(alt: Unbroken)

BEST SOUND MIXING

“American Sniper”
“Gone Girl”
“Interstellar”
“Into The Woods”
“Whiplash”

(alt: Fury)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“Big Hero 6”
“The Boxtrolls”
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”
“The Lego Movie”
“The Tale of Princess Kaguya”

(alt: Song Of The Sea)

The academy always makes room for one or two foreign films in this category.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“Force Majeure” (Sweden)
“Ida” (Poland)
“Leviathan” (Russia)
“Tangerines” (Estonia)
“Wild Tales” (Argentina)

These last few categories are all educated guesses.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“CitizenFour”
“Finding Vivian Maier”
“Last Days in Vietnam”
“Life Itself”
“Virunga”

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

“Aya”
“Baghdad Messi”
“Boogalo And Graham”
“My Father’s Truck”
“The Phone Call”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

“The Bigger Picture”
“The Dam Keeper”
“Duet”
“Feast”
“The Numberlys”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
“Joanna”
“The Lion’s Mouth Opens”
“One Child”
“The Reaper”

Okay, the nominations are tomorrow morning, but you probably own’t hear anything from me until late afternoon, that’s school for you.

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