I would just like to say that in these last few categories, I’m just making educated guesses. After this, I have four categories left, and they’re all neck and neck.
5th Most Likely To Win: Steve Carell as “John du Pont” in Foxcatcher
For one, he’s the only one here whose film was not nominated for Best Picture. Plus, the performance is not nearly as loved as some of the other nominees. And on top of that, his nomination was a bug surprise. I’m gonna say that he comes in last place.
Oscar Clip: “I went by the gym – it’s almost noon – and there’s no one in there.”
4th Most Likely To Win: Benedict Cumberbatch as “Alan Turing” in The Imitation Game
Now, being the lead in a film with multiple crucial Oscar nominations, playing a real person, and having your film backed by Harvey Weinstein are usually good signs when it comes to winning an Oscar. Unfortunately for Cumberbatch, he has to compete against Eddie Redmayne, who stars in a very similar film. Clearly, people like Redmayne’s performance better, and that means that Cumberbatch will be left in the dust.
Oscar Clip: “They’ll… take him away from me.”
3rd Most Likely To Win: Bradley Cooper as “Chris Kyle” in American Sniper
This is Bradley Cooper’s third consecutive Oscar nomination. Plus, American Sniper is that one movie that people can’t seem to stop talking about. And on top of all that, his acting is so good that he actually made me believe he was holding a real baby in his hands… the first time I saw it. But the fact that Cooper didn’t get any nominations from the Globes, SAG, or BAFTA proves that his performance might not be as love as people might want you to believe.
Oscar Clip: “Excuse me, my daughter’s in there!”
2nd Most Likely To Win: Eddie Redmayne as “Stephen Hawking” in The Theory Of Everything
Now, I know what your thinking. Of course he’s the frontrunner. He’s won the Globe, the BAFTA, and the SAG Award. Has anybody won all three of those and yet still lost the Oscar? Yes. Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind. So it can happen, and seeing how The Theory Of Everything doesn’t have nearly the amount of love as the frontrunner, I don’t think it’s gonna win.
Oscar Clip: “I have two years to live…”
MY PREDICTED WINNER: Michael Keaton as “Riggan Thompson” in Birdman
He’s the star of the movie that everybody loves. He’s wonderful in the role, he’s won a ton of critics awards, and he always gives great speeches. Forget about Eddie Redmayne, I think people won’t be able to resist voting for Keaton – Especially if their voting for his movie in Best Picture.
Oscar Clip: “I don’t exist… I’m not even here!”
My Personal Ranking Of The Nominees:
1.) Keaton
2.) Cumberbatch
3.) Redmayne
4.) Cooper
5.) Carell
CONMAN AT THE MOVIES 
yep, I hope Keaton gets it also! How the hell did Crowe pull that one off back then??? 🙂
I wish I had access to Birdman here in Finland so that I can compare, but I must say, I can’t imagine how acting can get any better than Redmayne’s performance. To be able to really capture–physically and in essence–that of a living individual is exceptional. And considering the physical transformation required–and the ability to communicate with just the eyes–phenomenal! I watch many programs with Stephen Hawking and I never stopped for a second during the movie to think that I was watching an actor, particularly in the second half of the film.
Of course, outstanding acting hasn’t always been acknowledged in the past. Every time I see Vincent D’Onofrio’s performance as the “bug in the Edgar suit” from Men in Black, I can’t imagine he didn’t even get a NOMINATION by the major award committees. The same is true for Haley Joel Osment in Artificial Intelligence. But then, how qualified am I, as just ticket-buyer, to make such assessments?
I guess we’ll see.