So here are the seven films shortlisted. Three of these will be nominated. And they are…

“Black Mass”
“Concussion”
“Legend”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“Mr. Holmes”
“The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window And Disappeared”
“The Revenant”

No Star Wars. Probably enough people didn’t get to see it. No Danish Girl, that’s surprising. Other omissions that might have shocked some people include Carol, The Hateful Eight, Pan, and Ex Machina.

Now, looking at this lineup, it’s really easy to figure out which three have the best shot at being nominated.

“Black Mass”

Johnny Depp’s transformation has already gotten a lot of love, and if Foxcatcher got in last year,

“Mad Max: Fury Road”

At this point, how does this not get in? It’s clearly going to be a major threat in Best Picture, so this nomination (and potential win) should come easily.

“The Revenant”

Depending on the quantity and quality of the makeup, this could be your winner.

Now, simple deduction and reason tells you that these three films are your nominees. But since when have the Academy been a fan of simple deduction or reason? Remember 2013. when both Jack@$$: Bad Grandpa and The Lone Ranger got nominated?

So, what are our other options.

“Concussion”

I hear there’s some goos, subtle work here. I also hear that the movie’s not very good.

“Legend”

Because apparently, there wasn’t enough Tom Hardy in this category.

“Mr. Holmes”

Uh, doesn’t Ian McKellen’s face already look like that?

“The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window And Disappeared”

Because sometimes, movies you’ve never heard of make it on and you have to just deal with it!

So, if I had to rank these in order of being nominated, it would look like this.

1.) Mad Max: Fury Road
2.) The Revenant
3.) Black Mass
4.) Mr. Holmes
5.) The 100-Year-Old Man…
6.) Concussion
7.) Legend