Some years, it’s obvious what movie is winning Best Picture. And you just have to wait three hours to confirm it.

This is not one of those years.  This year’s Oscar race is tight.

For a quick recap, here are your nominees.

The Big Short
Bridge Of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Off right away are Brooklyn, Bridge Of Spies, and The Martian. None of these films are nominated for either directing or editing. The only movies to win Best Picture without either nomination are Wings and Grand Hotel. And that was back when the Oscars were just getting started. True, The Martian has a Golden Globe win over The Big Short, but remember that the Golden Globes are voted on by an entirely different group of people than the Oscars.

That leaves us with five movies. There is a small chance that Room could pull off an upset win, as a lot of people seem to like it. Then again, it’s even more likely that Mad Max: Fury Road could win. It’s definitely a crowd pleaser. And I am predicting it to win almost everywhere else. But the fact remains that the film does not have a screenplay nomination, and it would be the most ‘out-there’ Best Picture choice in the history of the Academy.

The race for Best Picture really comes down to three movies.

The Revenant won the Globe and BAFTA awards, and it has potential to sweep at the Oscars. However, I just don’t think it’s gonna happen. I think the backlash for the movie is too strong, significantly stronger than the other nominees. Plus, it’s not nominated for writing. And to me, it doesn’t really have the ‘feel’ of a Best Picture winner.

The two movies that do have the ‘feel’ of a Best Picture winner are The Big Short and Spotlight. Both of these movies are based on true stories, and both films are nominated for directing, acting, writing, and editing. It’s usually pretty critical for a film to have all those nominations to win. Now, The Big Short won PGA. Usually that’s a pretty good indicator. And yet…

I just have a hunch. A feeling. An instinct. And I’m going to stick with my instinct.

I think that Spotlight is going to win Best Picture.

It won BFCA. It won the Indie Spirits award. It won more critics awards than you can shake a stick at. It deals with a really serious issue. And While Mad Max: Fury Road seems to be the movie that people loved the most this year, this seems to be the ‘serious’ movie that people loved the most this year.

Just for the sake of it, here’s how I would rank these films.

1.) Room
2.) The Martian
3.) Mad Max: Fury Road
4.) Spotlight
5.) The Big Short
6.) The Revenant
7.) Brooklyn
8.) Bridge Of Spies

And for the record: Inside Out = ROBBED