This year marks the first time in the past 30 years that the Golden Globe winner for Supporting Actor does not receive an Oscar nomination. That would seem to make this category more wide open, but much like Supporting Actress, this category has been locked for some time now.

5th Most Likely To Win: Lucas Hedges as ‘Patrick Chandler’ in Manchester By The Sea

This is Lucas Hedges’ film debut, and it’s certainly an impressive one. If he won, he would become the youngest winner in the history of this category. But I don’t think that’s going to happen. For someone to win an Oscar for their film debut, the performance has to be a big powerhouse that blows everybody away. Think Lupita Nyongo or Jennifer Hudson.

Lucas Hedges seems too passive in the way he plays his role. Nothing wrong with that, but it’s clear that the only reason he was nominated is because he got swept up in all the love for the film. This film is far more likely to win Actor or Screenplay before it wins here. Plus, people in the industry say that Hedges isn’t really the nicest person. So, that doesn’t help.

OSCAR SCENE: “I just don’t like him being in the freezer!”

4th Most Likely To Win: Michael Shannon as ‘Detective Bobby Andes’ in Nocturnal Animals

This is Michael Shannon’s second Oscar nomination. Shannon is a consistently solid actor who always picks good roles (except for Zod.) While he’s not really ‘overdue’ for an Oscar at this point, he does have a lot of fans. He also represents the sole nomination for  Nocturnal Animals, a film that certainly has its fans. Some voters might be tempted to vote for him seeing how it’s the only way to reward the film.

But despite all of that, I don’t think Shannon has a realistic shot at the Oscar. He is the only actor in this category who isn’t representing a Best Picture nominee, and given how divisive the film is, I feel very unlikely that Shannon has the support needed to win.

OSCAR SCENE: “Look, I’ve got nothing to lose, and I can’t let this guy f*** up my last case.”

3rd Most Likely To Win: Jeff Bridges as ‘Marcus Hamilton’ in Hell Or High Water

From one sheriff to another. This is Jeff Bridges’ seventh Oscar nomination. He’s the only guy in this category who’s won before, which puts him at a disadvantage. But his performance has been critically acclaimed, and he could potentially be the one chance Oscar voters have to award a beloved film.

But the fact is, Bridges hasn’t won a lot of critics awards, and he doesn’t have the momentum for a win. Some, including myself, would argue he isn’t as good as co-star Ben Foster. He’ll certainly get votes, but I would be shocked to see him upset.

OSCAR SCENE: The shootout.

2nd Most Likely To Win: Dev Patel as ‘Saroo Brierly’ in Lion

There’s a quiet buzz surrounding this Dev Patel’s first Oscar nomination. While some may claim that Patel is actually a lead in this film, category fraud always seems to give you better odds when you’re in the Supporting categories. Patel has more of the film to carry on his shoulders, and what he does with this character is truly extraordinary.

Voters might be compelled to give this film something, and if they do, watch out. But Dev hasn’t really won anything that would make Oscar voters take notice. The fact of the matter is, Dev Patel makes a strong argument for second place, but not higher.

AND MY OFFICIAL PREDICTION IS…

Mahershala Ali as ‘Juan’ in Moonlight

This is Mahershala Ali’s first Oscar nomination, and his performance in this film is truly something to admire. Though his screen time may have been brief, the impact he leaves is undeniable. He ‘s already won the lion’s share (Too soon, Patel?) of critic’s awards, including Critic’s Choice and SAG.

If nothing else, Ali’s win guarantees that Moonlight won’t be walking away empty handed. The film is certainly beloved, and this win will be a way of honoring both a great movie and a great performance. Everybody wins! Well, except for the other four actors, but whatever.

Tomorrow is Best Cinematography.