Today is February 3rd. It’s time for me to start my Oscar prediction articles. Starting today and continuing until Oscar Sunday, I will predict each and every category individually.
The category I will start with is Best Supporting Actress. Now, before I begin, I would like to call attention to some trivia; This category marks the first time in Oscar history that people of color are the majority in an acting category.
5th Most Likely To Win: Nicole Kidman as ‘Sue Brierly’ in Lion
This is Nicole Kidman’s fourth Oscar nomination, as well as her most critically acclaimed performance in years. As beloved as she is, I think she is the least likely of the nominees to walk away with the Oscar.
For one thing, she already has an Oscar. For another, Lion seems to be one of those films that get nominated in a bunch of categories, but ultimately don’t have the power to win anything. Plus, there’s Nicole Kidman’s recent statements on Trump that could be considered controversial.
OSCAR SCENE: “To take a child who’s suffering like you boys were, and to give them a chance, that’s something.”
4th Most Likely To Win: Octavia Spencer as ‘Dorothy Vaughn’ in Hidden Figures
Octavia Spencer recieved her second nomination this year. I ranked Spencer over Kidman for the simple reason that Hidden Figures is growing in popularity. But like Kidman, Spencer already has an Oscar. The Academy is in no rush to give her another one so quickly.
There’s also the fact that Spencer’s performance seems relatively slight compared to Janelle Monae and Taraji P. Henson. If this movie wins an Oscar, it will most likely be in the Screenplay category. I think a win for Spencer is possible, but very unlikely.
OSCAR SCENE: “I know. I know you believe that.”
3rd Most Likely To Win: Naomie Harris as ‘Paula’ in Moonlight
This is Naomie Harris’ first Oscar nomination. She is the only person to appear in each of the three sections in Moonlight. Her performance is very effective and is a large part of what makes the film successful. It is entirely possible that she could pull off a surprise win here, but I don’t think that will happen.
Harris has hardly won anything throughout all of awards season, while co-star Mahershala Ali has gotten all the praise as the MVP of the film. Maybe in a different year she would be a major threat to win. But this year, the competition is too stiff.
OSCAR SCENE: “You ain’t gotta love me. Lord knows I didn’t have love for you when you needed it, I know that.”
2nd Most Likely To Win: Michelle Williams as ‘Randi Chandler’ in Manchester By The Sea
The main reason that Michelle Williams is a threat to win is because people love her. This is her fourth nomination, and she does not yet have an Oscar. Now, her performance in this film has been widely praised, and she’s even won a handful of critics awards. So on paper, it looks like she could really win this thing.
However, Michelle Williams has very little screen time in the film itself. And she lost all the major precursors. Don’t rule her out entirely, but the fact is, this category has already been set in stone for quite some time.
OSCAR SCENE: “My heart was broken, it’s always been broken. And I know yours is broken too.”
AND MY OFFICIAL PREDICTION IS…
From the moment it was announced that Viola Davis would be going supporting, this category was a done deal. Some people will argue that Lead Actress is where she really belongs, but if she had been placed in that category, her Oscar would be far from a sure thing.
There is no denying the quality of Davis’ performance, her dedication to the role of a housewife who slowly becomes her own person is just jaw dropping to watch. When she wins (and she will win) she could very likely go down as one of the greatest winners in the history of this category.
OSCAR SCENE: “I gave eighteen years of my life to stand in the same spot as you!”
Tomorrow is Best Supporting Actor.