2016 Let’s Predict: Best Actress

Today’s category is Best Actress.

5th Most likely To Win: Meryl Streep as ‘Florence Foster Jenkins’ in Florence Foster Jenkins

This is Meryl Streep’s 20th Oscar nomination. Let that sink in.

I’m gonna start out by saying this: she will get votes. After her stirring speech at the Globes, some voters might like the idea of her giving another one. That would realy stick it in the face of our so-called president.

But the truth is, I don’t think Streep has enough momentum for a win. Remember, she already has three Oscars. Maybe someday they’ll give her a fourth, but I don’t think it will happen this year.

4th Most Likely To Win: Ruth Negga as ‘Mildred Loving’ in Loving

This is Ruth Negga’s first Oscar nomination. The case for her winning is that if Denzel also won, we would be looking at four people of color winning the acting awards. This would be insanely monumental.

But I can’t help but feel that Ruth Negga has a bit of a uphill climb. The performance itself is very quiet and doesn’t call attention to itself. It’s definitely a very good performance, but the fact that she is the sole representation of her film hurts her. And it doesn’t help that she hasn’t won any noticeable critic’s awards

3rd Most Likely To Win: Natalie Portman as ‘Jackie Kennedy’ in Jackie

This is Natalie Portman’s third Oscar nomination. She won this award six years ago for Black Swan. What’s interesting is that there was a time when Portman looked like she was contending to win. She did win BFCA after all, and her performance has been raved about.

But since losing the Globe, she seems to have lost a lot of her momentum. The film didn’t get as much overall love as most pundits were hoping for, and the fact that Portman already has an Oscar might dissuade some voters from rewarding her again so quickly.

2nd Most Likely To Win: Isabelle Huppert as ‘Michéle Leblanc’ in Elle

This is Isabelle Huppert’s first Oscar nomination, and I actually think she’s in a good position to pull off a shocking win. She won the Golden Globe as well as a bunch of critic’s awards, and her performance is one of the most celebrated of the year.

But my question is, how many people have actually seen the film . The dark subject matter is likely to turn people off, never mind the fact that it’s a foreign-language film that didn’t even make the shortlist for its own category. It is certainly possible that she pulls off a win, but I don’t think she’s our frontrunner.



Emma Stone as ‘Mia’ in La La Land

This is Emma Stone’s second nomination. For starters, she’s the only one in this category who’s representing a Best Picture nominee. There’s also the fact that the film is poised to become one of the biggest Oscar winners of all time. So, that helps.

But Emma Stone has won the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA for her soulful performance at the film’s center. That’s a pretty solid indicator that we have a frontrunner in this category. And when considering her final ‘Audition’ scene, she becomes my personal preference to win this category.




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