Our next category is best Sound Editing.
5th Most Likely To Win: Sully
This is the sole nomination for this film. Not since 1996 has a film won this category without a single other nomination. And that was back when this category only had three nominees. Plus, the sound editing doesn’t stand out as much as the other nominees.
4th Most Likely To Win: Deepwater Horizon
This has a nomination for Visual Effects, which indicates it has at least some support. However, it’s not a Best Picture nominee, which hurts it. It’s also not a very widely seen film.
3rd Most Likely To Win: Arrival
Here is where it gets a little murky. This could easily end up winning, for the simple reason that people will be tempted to give this film something. But I just don’t think it has more support than the next two nominees.
2nd Most Likely To Win: La La Land
Don’t underestimate this film in any category. A lot of people can’t tell the difference between Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. And the film is incredibly beloved. So this could very easily happen.
This seems like the most typical winner of the five nominees. Best Picture nominee, beloved war movie, filled with gunfire and explosions. It fits the bill for a winner, and it would also be the most deserving winner of the nominees.