Our next category is Best Adapted Screenplay.
5th Most Likely To Win: Fences
This is a posthumous nomination for August Wilson, who also won the Pulitzer for writing the original play. While the dialogue in this film is undeniably amazing, the script itself doesn’t seem like a probable winner. All of the dialogue comes directly from the play. In fact, the film has been criticized for being too much like the play.
4th Most Likely To Win: Lion
Here’s where things start to get interesting. This screenplay won the BAFTA, which seemingly puts it in a good position. But this category is so crowded that I honestly think that fourth is the best place for it. It could win, and it would actually be my vote. But the competition is just too stiff.
3rd Most Likely To Win: Hidden Figures
This would be an interesting winner. The momentum for this film is growing by the day, and Oscar voters may be compelled to give it something. But it doesn’t have any guild wins, so I doubt it can pull through in the end. But this could be one of the biggest shockers of the night.
2nd Most Likely To Win: Arrival
After winning at BFCA and WGA, this film seems to be picking up traction. Like Hidden Figures, this film is not the frontrunner in any one category, and voters may want to reward the film somewhere. But keep in mind that Arrival is a sci-fi film, and that’s not a genre the Academy typically likes to reward.
AND MY OFFICIAL PREDICTION IS;
Both of the times Arrival won, it wasn’t competing against Moonlight. Moonlight is arguably the #2 in Best Picture, which seems to be a key factor in winning Best Screenplay. It’s one of the most critically acclaimed film of the year, and it’s probably not winning Picture. Plus it beat out both Manchester and La La Land at the WGA’s.