This category is a paradox. None of the nominees seem like winners, but all of them feel like they have a chance to win. And the frontrunner is the kind of performance that you wouldn’t expect to be nominated in the first place.

5th Most likely To Win: Tom Hardy in The Revenant

Here’s a statement that applies to numbers 5-3, if he wins the award, you know the movie is winning Best Picture. Some people are predicting Revenant to sweep the Oscars, and if that actually happens, Hardy could win. But I just can’t see that happening.

4th Most Likely To Win: Christian Bale in The Big Short

Bale is the only nominee tonight who already has an Oscar. Does he really need a second one? True, the movie is a top Best Picture frontrunner. But does he really do that much in the movie to warrant an Oscar nomination? Let alone a win?

3rd Most Likely To Win: Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight

I hope Ruffalo wins an Oscar one day. And he has a crucial role in one of the top Best Picture frontrunners. He also has the biggest ‘Oscar’ scene of any of the nominees. And yet, there hasn’t been a lot of buzz for him. He hasn’t won anything major.

2nd Most Likely To Win: Mark Rylance in Bridge Of Spies

If Bridge Of Spies wins anything on Oscar night, expect it to be for Rylance’s performance. The performance did receive nominations in every major awards show. And he won BAFTA. Burt it was kind of obvious that he was going to win BAFTA. It’s totally normal for British performers to win awards. Maybe if Rylance won any other major awards, he would be more of a contender.

MY PREDICTED WINNER: Sylvester Stallone in Creed

He’s the only person in the category who’s not in a Best Picture nominee. He wasn’t nominated for SAG or BAFTA. And he’s Sylvester Stallone, not exactly known for his acting capabilities. So why is he suddenly the frontrunner to win? Because everybody says he’s great in the movie, and he’s won Globe and BFCA. On paper, this simultaneously makes no sense and makes a lot of sense. Maybe it’ll make more sense when I actually see the movie this weekend.

I’ve seen four of the five nominated performances. Here is my rankings

1.) Mark Ruffalo
2.) Mark Rylance
3.) Tom Hardy
4.) Christian Bale

OSCAR CLIPS;

Bale – Admitting he might be wrong.
Hardy – “God is a squirrel”
Ruffalo – “They knew, and they let it happen!”
Rylance – About to cross the bridge.