One week to go until the Oscars, and these categories are getting trickier and trickier to figure out. And in the category of Best Director, I’ve decided to make a very risky prediction…

5th Most Likely To Win: Lenny Abrahamson for Room

This nomination came completely out of nowhere. (Even though I called it back in March.) For Abrahamson to have any chance here, Room would have to be winning Best Picture. And even if that somehow happened, I still doubt Abrahamson would win.

4th Most Likely To Win: Tom McCarthy for Spotlight

The only reason McCarthy is nominated is so that Spotlight can have a serious chance to win Best Picture. I think it’s very likely that Spotlight ends up winning, but I somehow can’t see McCarthy winning. There’s not that much to McKay’s direction, outside of directing the performances.

3rd Most Likely To Win: Adam McKay for The Big Short

If McKay wins, it’s a pretty safe bet that The Big Short is winning Best Picture. At least McKay’s direction is more noticeable than McCarthy’s. But there are two directorial efforts on this list that are very noticeable. And in this category, that’s usually what you have to do to win.

2nd Most Likely To Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu for The Revenant

He won the Globe, DGA, and BAFTA awards. Normally that would be enough, but I don’t know. There’s a bit of a backlash surrounding The Revenant, and Inarritu is also the only person here who already has a Best Director Oscar. I guess this is my out-on-a-limb prediction, but here it goes.

MY PREDICTED WINNER: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road

I literally wrote out this post with Inarritu as my winner and changed my mind at the last second. This is tough. It’s either Inarritu or Miller. And I know that Inarritu has won everything, but… I’m really feeling like Miller is gonna win this one. he won BFCA, and the film has so much praise and it is going to win in most of the technical awards. I know a lot of people are saying Inarritu, but I just have a really good feeling about this one.

I’ve seen all five directorial efforts. Here’s how I would rank them.

1.) Abrahamson
2.) Miller
3.) Inarritu
4.) McKay
5.) McCarthy