5th Most Likely To Win: Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge
It would seem that Mel Gibson is back in the Academy’s good graces. But the controversy surrounding him isn’t just going to go away overnight. Plus, Mel Gibson is the only nominee here who already has an Oscar. I don’t think the Academy is in a hurry to reward him a second time.
4th Most Likely To Win: Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester By The Sea
Sometimes nominating a director is just a way of rewarding the film. Manchester By The Sea is one of those movies that’s all about the acting and writing, with the actual direction not being the selling point. Considering that Tom McCarthy didn’t win for Spotlight, which won Picture. I’d say that the direction of Manchester just isn’t flashy enough.
3rd Most Likely To Win: Denis Villenueve for Arrival
He will definitely get votes. Unlike Lonergan, Villenueve’s mark on the film is a lot more noticable. Directing an emotional sci-fi epic is far from an easy feat, and Villenueve has done a marvelous job. The problem is that it’s a sci-fi movie, and not one that has a realistic chance at winning Best Picture. Genre bias will keep him from winning, but don’t be surprised to see him nominated again in the future.
2nd Most Likely To Win: Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Moonlight is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year. And Barry Jenkins has picked up a respectable amount of critics awards. If he won he would become the first black director to win the Oscar. But I don’t think that’s gong to happen. There’s definitely a chance that he could surprise everyone, but this particular category seems to be all sewn up.
AND MY OFFICIAL PREDICTION IS;
Damien Chazelle has won the Globe, DGA, and Critics Choice Award He’s also directed the movie that’s been nominated for 14 Oscars. This helped Joseph L. Mankiewicz and James Cameron to win their Oscars, and it will help Chazelle win here. It also helps that Chazelle completely deserves all of the awards that he has received, as La La Land is a complete masterpiece. I honestly don’t see how Chazelle loses this.
Next up is Best Visual Effects.
Also, Lonergan, I have a feeling, is second. Manchester did VERY well with nominations and is most likely second in film. Jenkins slayed with critics, but he’s not going to come close to winning the Oscar.