2016 Let’s Predict: Best Actor

We’re coming down to the line. Best Actor.

5th Most Likely To Win: Viggo Mortensen as ‘Ben Cash’ in Captain Fantastic

This is Viggo Mortensen’s second nomination, following Eastern Promises in 2007. Considering that this is the only nomination for his film, not to mention that Captain Fantastic is the only non-Best Picture nominee represented here, I’d say Viggo’s chances of winning are slim to none.

4th Most Likely To Win: Andrew Garfield as ‘Desmond Doss’ in Hacksaw Ridge

This is Andrew Garfield’s first nomination. He gives a good, solid performance that might have won in a weaker year. But he doesn’t have any precursors, so I find it highly unlikely that he could end up winning.

3rd Most Likely To Win: Ryan Gosling as ‘Sebastian’ in La La Land

This is Ryan Gosling’s second nomination. He was previously nominated for Half Nelson in 2006. I think there’s a real possibility he could win. The film is set to sweep, after all. And there’s a small amount of buzz about Gosling having to learn to play the piano in 6 months. But he hasn’t won anything except the Globe, so we’ll see what happens.

2nd Most Likely To Win: Casey Affleck as ‘Lee Chandler’ in Manchester By The Sea

This is Casey Affleck’s second nomination. He was previously nominated for The Assassination Of Jesse James. After winning the Critic’s Choice Award, Globe and BAFTA, he seems like the odds on frontrunner. But he lost SAG, and the allegations against him could seriously hurt him. This might be the trickiest category to predict, but I’ve finally made my decision.



Denzel Washington as ‘Troy Maxson’ in Fences

This is Denzel Washington’s seventh acting nomination. He is the most nominated person of color in Oscar history, and I think he’s about to nab a third Oscar. First of all, he won SAG, which is always a good indicator in this category. But there’s also the matter of the allegations against Casey Affleck. And there’s also the fact that Washington’ performance is my personal favorite of the five.


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