2016 Let’s Predict: Best Picture

Here we go. Less than an hour until the Oscars.

9th Most Likely To Win: Hell Or High Water

Well, something had to bring up the rear. This is actually my second favorite of the Best Picture nominees, but no major guild has given it Best Picture, not to mention the fact that this film is unlikely to pick up a win in any category.

8th Most Likely To Win: Fences

Unlike Hell Or High Water, this film is definitely winning one oscar, if not two. But with no nominations for directing or editing, I can’t imagine it has a lot of critical support. This film is getting its due for acting, but nowhere else.

7th Most Likely To Win: Lion

This film is Harvey Weinstein’s pony in the race, and BAFTA made sure to remind us that this film is still in the race. I think it could still potentially win in any of the other categories where it scored nomination, but I don’t think there’s enough buzz to make it a Best Picture winner.

6th Most Likely To Win: Hacksaw Ridge

The directing nomination helps, but Mel Gibson’s track record will probably keep this film from winning Best Picture. It’s also the only Best Picture nominee that isn’t also nominated for writing. That seriously hurts its chances.

5th Most Likely To Win: Arrival

On the one hand, this film has critical nominations for directing, writing, and editing. But it is the only Best Picture nominee to miss out on an acting nomination, not to mention the fact that the Academy has never given Best Picture to a science fiction film.

4th Most Likely To Win: Manchester By The Sea

This film has a lot of support in the major categories, but it hasn’t won any major prizes. It’s struggling to maintain frontrunner status in both Screenplay and Lead Actor, and it’s not even the true indie darling of the year. It will get some votes, but not enough.

3rd Most Likely To Win: Hidden Figures

Normally I’d say that this film has no shot, since it’s not nominated for directing or editing. Plus, it’s not favored to win either of the two categories its’ nominated for. But there is a lot of buzz surrounding this film, and numerous surprise wins have given me pause. This could be the most shocking best Picture winner since Crash.

2nd Most Likely To Win: Moonlight

This is one of two movies to be nominated for directing, writing, editing, and acting. It checks off all of the boxes and is many people’s favorite film of the year. At this point, a few select people are still clinging onto a dream that Moonlight can win Best Picture. And that’s fine.

So here’s to the ones who dream, foolish as they may seem.



La La Land

This film has been nominated for 14 Academy Awards. Only three films have ever held that honor. The other two are All About Eve and Titanic. Needless to say, both of those films won Best Picture. You can bet on one of the other eight films, but to me, it’s an easy choice.

So, instead of live-blogging the Oscars like i usually do. I’ll be live tweeting. You can see my tweets here. I’ll make a post tomorrow talking about the results of the Oscars.

Okay, here we go.

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